Labor

Today, I’d like to discuss something that’s crucial for us all: the state of our labor market and what it might be indicating about a potential recession on the horizon. As an initial note, keep in mind that recessions are normal parts of the economic cycle, and understanding their signs can help us prepare better.... […]

Wage growth is too high across DW countries to durably bring down inflation. In credit cycles wages lag everything, but in inflationary income-driven cycles, wage growth is coincident by maintaining spending and inflation. Recent Atlanta Fed data confirms elevated US wage growth. Wage growth has to be put in the context of overall productivity to... […]