Macroeconomics

Today, I’d like to discuss something that’s crucial for us all: the state of our labor market and what it might be indicating about a potential recession on the horizon. As an initial note, keep in mind that recessions are normal parts of the economic cycle, and understanding their signs can help us prepare better.... […]

Wage growth is too high across DW countries to durably bring down inflation. In credit cycles wages lag everything, but in inflationary income-driven cycles, wage growth is coincident by maintaining spending and inflation. Recent Atlanta Fed data confirms elevated US wage growth. Wage growth has to be put in the context of overall productivity to... […]

Banking, as the lifeblood of an economy, is often at the heart of economic uncertainties. One such question that arises in recent times is, “Are we heading towards a banking crisis?” Let’s delve into this, breaking down the complex financial jargon into digestible information. The current conditions suggest a positive trend – bank funding conditions... […]

Money is being taken out of bank deposit accounts at an alarming rate. Since March 2022, when the Federal Reserve increased rates (a move called a “hike”), about $1.4 trillion has been withdrawn. But where is all this money going? Nearly $900 billion has been moved to Money Market Funds and about $500 billion has... […]

The U.S. housing market is in the middle of its sixth major downturn since the late 1960s. Home prices are declining in 75 percent of major cities, with many areas posting declines for six or seven consecutive months. The most time-tested and reliable measure of home prices is the Case-Shiller home price index. The Case-Shiller... […]